Methodology

The methodology used by AFSE's CDCEF to draw up the historical chronology of quarterly cycle turning points is described in detail in this working paper. It is based on two pillars.

The first pillar is quantitative, and consists of measuring the business cycle using various econometric methods, from which a list of possible dates for recessions in the French economy is obtained.

The second pillar is qualitative, and relies on a narrative approach based on the opinions of the experts making up the Committee (economists, conjuncturists, econometricians, historians). This "expert opinion" filter is essential in this type of exercise, for while quantitative methods are a valuable aid to the decision that willultimately be taken by the Committee, their results cannot be directly taken into account without qualitative economic analysis. The narrative approach makes it possible to validate, in the light of the economic situation prevailing at the time of the episodes under consideration, the periods identified as possible recessions by the economic analysis.The narrative approach thus makes it possible to validate the periods identified as possible recessions by the preceding econometric analysis, without necessarily seeking to modify the dates of peaks and troughs.